Churchill Club - Event Detail - Forecasting the Future to Make Better Decisions in the Present (Breakfast Event)

Tuesday, August 28, 2007


		Forecasting the Future to Make Better Decisions in the Present (Breakfast Event)

		Speakers: Paul Saffo, Technology Forecaster

		Forecasters have always struggled to match their predictions to an ever-less predictable reality. A movie star as Governor? No way! Planes hitting skyscrapers? The stuff of cheap novels! No matter how good the forecast, reality is certain to surprise us, or worse, the forecast will be ignored because it is simply too outlandish.However, as forecaster Paul Saffo detailed in the current issue of the Harvard Business Review(article here), it is possible to quickly develop effective forecasts with a few simple rules of thumb that should be in every executive's strategy toolkit. As Paul observes in his article, Forecasting looks at how hidden currents in the present signal possible changes in direction for companies, societies, or the world at large. The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities, not a limited set of illusory certainties. Above all, the forecasters task is to map uncertainty, for uncertainty is opportunity. At this breakfast program, Paul will offer a set of simple, commonsense rules that you can use to both forecast and evaluate the quality of forecasts given to you and to properly identify the opportunities and risks they present.

		Location: Fenwick & West 801 California Street Mountain View, CA 94041


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